Litecoin Price -Analysis-2020
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Add capLitecoin Price -Analysis-2020tion |
let's take a look at some charts from
this week's article on the litecoin for
brave new coin so a lot of people like
to compare litecoin to Bitcoin in
various aspects because litecoin is
essentially bitcoins cousin it's a
carbon copy of Bitcoin except for the
fact that it's four times bigger in many
ways so it's four times bigger as far as
the expected end supply circulating
supply it's four times quicker as far as
the block times are concerned and it
already had it's having on August 7th
2019 so a lot of people pointed to
litecoin and said well this is what
could happen with BTC where it just
continued to sell off I mean I disagree
with that because mainly LTC has just
been slapped around by the rest of the
market it doesn't really have a mind of
its own it did arguably bust north
before the entire market did in February
March 2019 but other than that it very
rarely does its own thing before or
after everyone else it's generally just
together with everything so it broke up
at the end of the year with everything
else it broke down and marg with
everything else and now it's mean
reverting with everything else I talk
about this every video I talk about this
any chance I can get and some people
might think well the github commits
don't mean anything fine but when you
look at where github commits used to be
and where they are now it just makes me
a little concern that there isn't much
dev work going on now charlie lee has
addressed this multiple times saying
that it's basically one guy merging
everything from BTC unto LTC or testing
code and then merging it but there's no
commits in the master branch for that
reason okay fine as long as the LTC
buyers and holders know that going into
it that there's essentially one guy who
just merges code and there isn't
necessarily any innovation going on on
the master branch they do have a
extension block and nimble Wimble thing
in the works being tested it's actively
being developed there
currently in the testing phase of that I
think it would be a disaster because
extension blocks are basically a black
box where anything could happen in the
extension block and then it comes back
to the main chain and hopefully it syncs
up with the rules of the main chain now
they're a bunch of safeguards and yada
yada yada that go along with that but
that's a major concern I'm glad it's
happening in LTC I'm glad they're
experimenting with it it looks like it's
gonna eventually come onto the chain if
not by the end of this year probably by
q2 next year I don't think any of that
will have any effect on the price
whatsoever it's a great test net for BTC
though so I got usage interestingly
continues to push up on LTC approaching
70% not really sure why but that's good
for the chain fees are continually just
low lower than everything else that's a
one reason LTC will ever rise in price
in my opinion is because it's a spillway
for BTC and other coins so if everything
else is full from a transaction
perspective or high in fees you can buy
LTC move it quickly and be done with a
transaction you could do the same with
ripple you did the same with any of
these trash coins that really only have
a method of exchange as far as what
they're useful for looking at
transactions per day in average
transaction values have essentially been
flat since past two years any rise and
average transaction values has likely
been due to the rise in price and not
necessarily increased on chain activity
so if this were a bullish picture you'd
want to see something similar too late
to mid 2017 where Everage transaction
values went up and up and up I think
this is what I've got listed on coinbase
maybe not but every transaction values
got up and up and up transactions per
day up and up and up and right now it's
just flat this is probably a speculative
miners or speculation and miners not
necessarily economic utility I don't
know anyone off the top of my head is
like yes I must send all my transactions
on LTC
there's just no there's no benefit
really other than logo transaction fees
this is average block size and average
transaction fees so you can see fees
quite low historically back to 2017
levels block sizes at a multi-year low
suggesting that there isn't much
activity on the chain and or its scaling
really well probably combination on the
boat of both of them just because
transactions per day is super low if we
look at n VT which is an inverse metric
of economic utility the line here the
fill is daily active addresses or
monthly active addresses you can see
monthly active addresses multi-year lows
around 2017 levels not something you
want to see if you're bullish you want
to see vibrant and continuously active
on chain activity and you can see it's
just been nothing but down down down
ever since 2018 and there's again
there's no reason to use LTC unless you
really have to it's no reason to hold it
so reason to buy it there's no you know
of activity per se there's no innovation
per se so yeah I just I don't know if
there's even a community and LTC anymore
I'm sure there is because there's
diehard LTC people but this Unchained
activity just kind of says dying nothing
really going on and that's why nvt kept
rising because their if there's no
Unchained activity relative to the
market cap and the market cap keep going
keeps going up it just says it's way
overbought it's way overvalued
and on that drop on March 12th it came
right back down to the previous range so
again all this stuff says the same thing
I want on chain utility to increase I
don't want unchain utility to decrease
if I'm bullish if I want a long term
healthy chain people are talking about
it people are paying attention to it
people are excited about it there's no
proof mistake here it's just mining
talking about the mining stuff in a
second but it's a very unexcited
milquetoast sort of chain right now
here's MVR V which is another inverse
metric of on chain utility and you can
treat it as an oscillator so overbought
up here oversold down here you can see
it reached near
oversold but it did not breach 0.5 more
for more than a day which historically
has been the bye zone so buys own selves
own decisions own against sort of an
exciting it's at the lower bound of the
decision zone so you can certainly go
higher from here become super overbought
again but it's nothing that's screaming
by or anything like that
based on this signal this is hash rate
and difficulty and again the having was
in August ever since the having hit the
hash rate has dropped like 70 percent or
more it's kind of just stayed there I
had a pretty decent drop again on March
12th when my profitability probably
dropped pretty heavily at that time it's
just starting to recover as price
recovers so I expect hash wait to just
mere price unless there's something
exciting going on I don't expect any new
script Asics anytime soon
so what you have is what you get which
may be a good thing you know maybe these
just all die off you know they do have a
shelf life they don't last forever so
maybe most of these just don't exist
anymore or maybe there's script admirers
that I don't see listed here in
development secret development I don't
know but if you look at the
profitability they're all negative
except one of them that was recently
released so maybe if you are a ASIC
manufacturer you're looking to make a
script minor I just don't think there's
enough interest in them
so maybe the LTC is the first chain
where all the miners die all the Asics
diet becomes anti ASIC and it just goes
to the pure CPU GPU mining I mean that
would be super interesting long term if
nobody cares to make a script ASIC
anymore so it just is anti ASIC because
there aren't any these super interesting
alright looks like a technicals
open interest of BitFenix at the top vpv
our volume profile of the visible range
on the side here volume oscillator RSI
and 50 and 200 EMAS so you can see open
interest this pradosham mega long since
early 2019 short circuit a beautiful
long could fill a little bit on March
12th for nothing
insane I mean there was a bit of a long
squeeze there but they're still
massively long overall net long looking
at VP VR it's in this jumbly mess so
it's probably gonna continue to chop I
mean there's a lot of price history here
there's all this rise from 2017 this
2018 2019
more 2019 so there's a lot of volume
here so it's gonna consolidate it's
gonna bounce around I know expected to
break 65 anytime soon you get the 200
there it's not the 50 all those
resistance points it's gonna need it's
either gonna need to follow the market
where it just rises and falls without
any heed of the previous resistance or
some massive consolidation pattern snow
bullish or bearish divergence is an RSI
which is fine and 5200 is crossed
bearish it was briefly cross bullish and
then you know March 12th happened and
the rest of the market kind of that off
did make new yearly lows did make a
yearly low multi-year low on RSI well
says that there was a big jump in
selling exhaustion there people just got
margin called or they were fearful and
they sold or they had their stop-loss
all that stuff but on the downside I
mean there's plenty of support at that
local low know between 27 and 37
probably so this is nothing I want to
touch as a trader anytime soon it just
looks trend less sideways garbling kooky
nonsense unless there's some sort of
chart pattern that emerges or
consolidation pattern so the 50% of the
range is around 55 bucks so it's gonna
have to break 55 to get me excited about
a long term bullish continuation you'll
notice that 55 is kind of like the peak
vpv are the 200 EMA so there's a ton of
confluence for resistance here so that's
what it's got a break on the cloud
bullish above the cloud bearish below
the cloud it's just trying to mean
revert now back to 56 55 here is a LTC
BTC and again it's got this massive
overhead VPP our resistance a decent
psychological resistance you know the
pivot resistance at Donna one it's at
local Lowe's I mean I might get this
weird Adam and Eve thing and then try
for a run to 0.01 but
again it's nothing I want to buy is a
traitor it's below the 200 pull the
clouds below 50 set lows there's really
no support below the current low should
it fall further it's nice that it's been
flat for about a year but I don't really
see anything too exciting from even a
range perspective it hasn't really
tightened at all from a begun bee dance
perspective there's no triangles here
there's no patterns here other than you
know the potential Adam Eve but that's
weeks away..
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